STOCHASTIC TRAFFIC DEMAND PROFILE

Traffic surveys routinely estimate the profile of traffic demand in a certain road section, showing expected evolution over workday or weekend. However, actual fluctuates around this value. That can lead to brief excess capacity at moment high and consequent congestion due drop. This type variability has not yet been properly studied despite fact it play significant role modelling engineering applications. paper presents results analysis five-minute aggregation intervals. The do clearly show single random distribution that would accurately model variability. Normal, lognormal gamma distributions all reasonably well fit data for individual Based on count best fits, seems best, but most cases, difference between is statistically significant. There appears be pattern where have better different times day week. regularity magnitude (e.g. morning peak hour) probably this, as interval.